Home Loan Rates Reach Historic Lows- What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates?

Home Loan Rates Reach Historic Lows- What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates?

FOMC meeting on TuesdayMortgage markets were especially volatile last week, taking rate shoppers in California on a roller-coaster ride. The week’s news schedule was full. It included debt ceiling debates, jobs figures, and ongoing maneuverings within the Eurozone.

Last Week in History Was One For The Record Books…Here’s Why

Each story a material impact on mortgage rates and, as a result, rates varied wildly from day-to-day.

Throughout the early part of the week, mortgage rates fell.

Monday, bond markets improved as leaks of the congressional debt ceiling agreement surfaced. Investors approved of the accord’s general terms and bought U.S.-backed debt to prove it. Tuesday, when the final agreement was reached and the terms were made public, mortgage rates dropped again.

This is because the debt ceiling agreement is based on spending cuts and tax increases. In response, analysts revised lower their respective growth estimates for the United States, benefitting bonds.

Last Thursday was the single worst day for Stocks since October of 2008 and pushed the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Index into negative territory for 2011. In fact, the Dow has lost nearly 11% after hitting a 2011 high of 12,807 back on May 2. And while it is important for our economy to improve, one result we often see during weak economic times is an improvement in Bonds, including Mortgage Bonds, and therefore home loan rates, to which Mortgage Bonds are tied. Think of it this way: Investors move their money back and forth between Stocks and Bonds, moving their money into the safe haven of Bonds when there is uncertainty or weakness in the economy. That action last week helped Bonds and home loan rates approach their historic best levels once again.

On the eve of the July jobs report, traders flocked to the ultra-safe bond market; “whispers” put the net jobs created figure at a negative. Wall Street feared the worst. By Thursday’s close, mortgage pricing was at its best levels since November 2010.

Friday morning, though, markets recoiled. When the Non-Farm Payrolls report showed much-better-than-expected growth, it triggered a bond market sell-off and rates reversed higher. Rates rose more Friday than on any single day since November 30, 2010.

If you were quoted a mortgage rate on Thursday, on Friday, the same mortgage rate cost 1 discount point more.

Loan Squawk

The Week Ahead

This week, rates may rise or fall — it’s too soon to tell.

Friday afternoon, after markets closed, S&P downgraded the long-term debt of the U.S. government a notch. Typically, lower credit ratings means higher borrowing costs which leads to higher mortgage rates, among other things. However, it’s unclear how markets will react to the S&P decision.

Plus, the Federal Open Market Committee meets Tuesday and that, too, can affect markets.

It’s time to take advantage of historically low interest rates

I love to work with readers that find my information on the Mortgage and Housing Market helpful in your decision making process. As a Mortgage Planner at Vintage Mortgage Group in Pleasanton I am in a unique position to help you capitalize at any point in the market. Contact me below today to help you with your purchase or refinance.


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